GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – The World Trade Organization raised its 2026 global merchandise trade growth forecast to 3.9 percent. That marks a sharp increase from the 1.9 percent estimate issued in March. The WTO said stronger first-half trade, supply chain adjustments and artificial intelligence investment supported the revision. Merchandise trade volume grew 3.5 percent during the first half of 2026 despite major disruptions affecting energy, transport and fertilizer markets. The organization now forecasts merchandise trade growth of 4.1 percent in 2027.
Artificial intelligence-related demand emerged as a major source of merchandise trade growth during the first half. AI-enabling goods such as semiconductors and servers accounted for 47 percent of global merchandise trade growth. Trade in those products rose 67 percent from a year earlier. The WTO also said global spending on AI infrastructure should increase by at least 30 percent in 2026. Strong demand for computing hardware helped support trade while other sectors faced disruption from conflict and transport constraints.
Global supply chains also adjusted to pressure across major commodity and shipping markets. Middle East crude oil exports fell by about 24 percent during the first half of 2026. Liquefied natural gas exports from the region dropped 47 percent over the same period. Increased shipments from other suppliers limited the global decline to about 6 percent for crude oil. Global LNG exports fell only 1 percent. Container throughput worldwide increased 3.9 percent through July as trade moved through alternative ports and corridors.
AI goods strengthen global merchandise trade
The stronger goods outlook contrasts with weaker expectations for commercial services trade. The WTO cut its 2026 forecast for services trade volume growth to 3.3 percent from 4.8 percent in March. Transport and international travel faced greater pressure from disruption in the Middle East. International tourist arrivals declined 0.8 percent in the second quarter. They remained only 0.4 percent higher across the first half overall. Travel spending growth also slowed sharply between the first and second quarters.
Other services recorded stronger results despite weakness in travel and transport. Computer services exports rose 18 percent from a year earlier in the first quarter. The WTO estimated second-quarter growth at 12 percent. Financial services exports increased 14 percent year-on-year in the second quarter. The organization forecasts commercial services trade volume growth of 6.4 percent in 2027. It also projects global GDP growth of 2.6 percent in 2026 and 2.9 percent next year.
Regional trade growth remains uneven
Regional merchandise trade forecasts show wide differences across the global economy. The WTO projects Asia will lead merchandise export growth at 9.9 percent in 2026. North American exports are forecast to grow 5.7 percent, while Africa is projected at 5.6 percent. South America is forecast to record 3.4 percent growth. Europe is projected to decline 0.1 percent. The Middle East faces the largest contraction, with merchandise exports forecast to fall 17.2 percent during the year.
Import growth also varies sharply among regions in the latest WTO outlook. Asia is forecast to post merchandise import growth of 9.5 percent, while Africa is projected at 8.9 percent. Imports into North America are forecast to rise 1.4 percent, and Europe is projected to grow 0.5 percent. Middle East merchandise imports are forecast to fall 15.4 percent. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said the latest figures showed trade resilience while also highlighting unequal exposure to economic and geopolitical disruptions.