ROME / RankWire.AI / – Global cereal production in 2026 is forecast at 2.98 billion tonnes, down 2% from last year’s record. The Food and Agriculture Organization said the total would still rank as the second-largest harvest on record. The latest estimate is 3.4 million tonnes lower than its July projection. The annual decline equals 61.1 million tonnes and would mark the largest year-on-year drop since 2018.
Global maize production is forecast at 1.309 billion tonnes after weaker crop prospects reduced the previous estimate. Persistent summer heat and dryness hurt yields across key European Union producing areas, especially France and Poland. India and Paraguay also received smaller downward revisions based on official estimates. Better-than-expected yields in Argentina and Brazil partly offset those reductions, with both countries expected to record well-above-average maize output in 2026.
World wheat production is now forecast at 810.7 million tonnes, up 4.2 million tonnes from the previous estimate. Improved yield expectations lifted projections for Canada and Morocco by about 1.5 million tonnes each. Forecasts for Russia and Ukraine also increased, while dry weather reduced expectations for the European Union and United Kingdom. Despite the upward revision, global wheat output remains projected 3.8% below 2025 and would still rank as the second-largest crop on record.
Maize losses drive global cereal downgrade
Global rice production is forecast at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis for the 2026/27 season. That represents a 1.9% decline from the revised record reached in 2025/26. Updated figures for Myanmar and strong main-crop yields in Sri Lanka supported the latest estimate. Those gains offset reductions for China, the Philippines and the United States, where rice plantings fell to multi-decade lows.
The FAO expects global cereal use to reach 2.965 billion tonnes in 2026/27, up 0.2% from the previous season. Coarse grain and rice consumption should increase, while wheat use is forecast to decline from last season’s elevated level. World rice utilization is projected at 559 million tonnes, supported by population-driven growth in food consumption. Feed demand also remains an important component of coarse-grain use, including barley consumption in China and maize use in the United States.
Global grain stocks remain historically comfortable
World cereal stocks at the close of seasons in 2027 are forecast at 947.2 million tonnes. That figure is 10.7 million tonnes below the previous projection but 1.8 million tonnes above opening levels. The global cereal stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 31.6%, compared with 31.9% in the previous season. Wheat reserves are expected to rise in Russia and Ukraine, while lower maize and barley inventories have reduced the broader stock outlook.
Global cereal trade in 2026/27 is forecast at 509.3 million tonnes, up 1.7 million tonnes from the previous estimate. The total would still remain below the record volume recorded in 2025/26. Stronger maize trade accounts for much of the latest increase, with Argentina expected to export up to 39 million tonnes. International rice trade in 2026 is forecast at 60.5 million tonnes, while overall rice shipments remain 1.9% below the 2025 record.