POTSDAM, GERMANY / RankWire.AI / – Climate change could nearly triple the land burned by wildfires across Europe each year by 2100, according to new research. Researchers project a 192% increase in annual burned area under a high-emissions pathway linked to about 3.6°C of global warming. The study comes after major 2026 wildfires struck parts of Belgium, France, Greece, Portugal and Spain. Hot, dry and windy conditions remain the central climate drivers identified in the analysis.
The research, published in Global Change Biology, used two fire models coupled with the LPJmL vegetation model. Scientists tested a low-emissions pathway, SSP1-2.6, and a high-emissions pathway, SSP3-7.0. The lower pathway corresponds to roughly 1.8°C of warming, while the higher pathway reaches about 3.6°C. Researchers also held socioeconomic factors constant in separate experiments to isolate their effect on wildfire activity.
Under the lower-emissions case, one model projected about 39% more land burned annually by the end of the century. A second model indicated a possible decrease under lower warming because it reflected historical human influences differently. Under the high-emissions case, the models pointed to much stronger growth in burned area. The largest increases appeared around the Mediterranean and across much of Western and Central Europe. Some of those regions have recorded relatively little fire activity in the past.
Models show emissions drive burned area
The study found that fire weather and fire-management capacity strongly shape future wildfire activity across Europe. Population density, vegetation changes and land use also affect outcomes, especially at regional levels. Lead author Maik Billing works at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, which led the research. The analysis separates climate-driven fire weather from human factors that can influence how far fires spread.
Continued improvements in prevention, early detection and firefighting could cut burned area by 72% to 92% versus scenarios without those gains. The reduction was larger in the lower-emissions scenario and smaller under stronger warming. Even with continued gains in fire-management capacity, fire activity increased in about 55% of Europe’s fire-prone regions under strong climate change. Co-author Thomas Hickler works with the Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre in Germany.
Fire management can limit wildfire spread
The findings arrive during an intense European wildfire season in 2026, when dry conditions and extreme heat fueled major fires. Southern Europe faced some of the most severe outbreaks, but fires also affected areas farther north. The study’s projections extend beyond the Mediterranean, showing higher fire activity across parts of Western and Central Europe. Researchers said those patterns reflect changes in fire weather as temperatures rise and dry periods intensify.
The study does not treat the 192% increase as an inevitable forecast. It represents a modeled outcome under the high-emissions pathway and the study’s assumptions. Researchers found a much smaller increase under lower emissions and substantial reductions from stronger fire management. They also found that management alone did not fully offset increased fire activity under stronger warming. The results identify emissions levels, fire weather and management capacity as major factors shaping Europe’s future burned area.